Lend me your ears.
For those of you who enjoy audio, you will soon be able to tune in to the first episode of this podcast where I tell the below story. We have begun our trek in the deserts. Because I didn’t get my podcast approved yet in Anchor, it might take a little while to be released on all your favorite podcasting platforms, so you should definitely subscribe to get my update in the coming days as each platform approves and uploads the show. Hopefully, the show won’t be too outdated if it comes out after voting tomorrow!
Don’t forget to vote tomorrow if you live in Michigan, Washington, Missouri, Mississippi, North Dakota, or Idaho!
Edit: Podcast now available on Spotify, coming soon to other platforms.
The race has narrowed: Bernie and his working-class movement vs Biden and the Establishment
Let’s start by rewinding to the state of the race before South Carolina. After winning the popular vote despite some shenanigans in Iowa, and a narrow victory in New Hampshire, Bernie won a decisive victory in Nevada. He became the presumptive front-runner and many were expecting a strong showing on Super Tuesday as the centrist vote was split between Joe, Mike, Pete, and Amy; there was a new hope he could actually go the distance. All eyes were on South Carolina, Joe Biden’s firewall. The establishment was in a scramble to stop Bernie’s momentum, until in stepped their white knight, Jim Clyburn.
South Carolina
“I know Joe. We know Joe. But most importantly, Joe knows us.” - Jim Clyburn
Jim Clyburn, a prominent leader from the civil rights movement who represented South Carolina for decades, decided to break his silence about who he was set to vote for in the primary; he wanted everyone in South Carolina to join him in voting for who they knew, Joe. Democratic Strategist, Don Calloway, made an appearance on Hill TV’s Rising and gave a little context about the Clyburn’s stature in the state and his influence on the community of democratic voters:
“Jim Clyburn has a 60-year history of civil rights leadership in South Carolina. He is not to be trifled with, he is a real deal boss, probably one of the last old-school political leaders …
You have people alive who lived under Jim Crowe, Jim Clyburn helped folks get out of that … His endorsement carries a tremendous amount of weight …
Jim Clyburn knows every black person in South Carolina, likely because he has touched their lives on a very personal level.”
I think I and many others underestimated this kind of impact coming from old-style politics. Clyburn’s relationship with the voters in South Carolina, particularly the older black voters who lived through the struggle with him in the civil rights era, is tangible, personal, and trustful.
This entire primary we have heard that voters are concerned first and foremost with beating Donald Trump. There is so much fear about losing to him again to usher another 4 years of this kind of corrupt circus, that people are nervous about committing to someone, especially those moderate voters who had a stratified field. In this situation, many people are looking to the leaders that they trust to help them make the right choice.
Ultimately Biden did win in a landslide earning the support of 61% of African American voters. One Edison poll indicated the effects of Clyburn’s endorsement showing that 61% of voters said it was “an important factor in their decision,” around a quarter of them even said it was “the most important factor.” In this primary that is so driven by fear, many voters are waiting to make their choice, and Clyburn’s permission seemed to have helped give Biden 48% of the voters who decided in ‘the last few days,’ compared to Sander’s 16%. Exit polls also showed that ~71% of those who came to vote were over the age of 45, which certainly favored Biden as well; youth turnout did not meet the Bernie Campaign’s expectations.
This win breathed life into an otherwise withering Joe Biden campaign. The moderates now had a definitive choice to represent their desire to return to normalcy.
Corporatist Avengers Assemble
After a convincing comeback for Joe in South Carolina, the field started to narrow. It seems the signal was given by Captain Corporate America himself, Barack Obama. On the night of the big win Obama, who previously advised Joe not to run at all, called him to congratulate him on the win and discuss the next move. The next day, he called Pete who smartly ended his campaign on a high avoiding poor results on Super Tuesday, adding “relatively successful former presidential candidate” to his resume, and of course, Pete came out to endorse the former Vice President. He even admitted in a campaign memo that he wanted to “shrink Sanders’s margin of victory coming out of Super Tuesday” and that he wanted to prevent him from getting “too great a lead in the delegate race for anyone to catch up.” Amy followed suit and even Beto made an appearance to bring energy on the ground in Texas, which was hotly contested according to polls before Super Tuesday.
With a social democrat like Bernie in pole position, the moderates had to search for, find, and quickly coalesce around their champion to stop the actual threat to their material interests that his working-class movement poses. The Corporatist Avengers assembled behind Joe Biden just in time for the first major voting day in the primary, with the hopes of fully reviving his campaign.
Super Tuesday and the Aftermath
There’s no way to sugar coat it, Bernie got beat badly on Super Tuesday only winning 4 of the 14 states on offer. Youth turnout in many states was low and in California and Texas, the biggest prizes, there were reports of long lines and in some cases malfunctioning electronic voting machines. He had upset defeats in Wisconsin, where Klobmentum went straight to Joe, and Massachusetts where Biden upset both Bernie and Warren.
Bernie was doing well in Texas polls in the days leading up to the primary but Biden brought in suburban voters and coalesced those conservative Democrats who were looking for an alternative to Bernie. It’s interesting to note the parallels between South Carolina and Texas, as well. Older voters made up a larger portion of the primary electorate than they did in 2016 and 2008, and those older voters overwhelmingly and unsurprisingly supported Biden. Biden also won almost 50% of the voters who decided on their candidate “in the last few days.” Again, the election-day, electability focused voters who didn’t want revolution needed their signal; the Joe-mentum coming in from South Carolina and the coalescing of leading moderate candidates and seemingly revered party elites like Obama, gave them permission to find consensus around a front-runner to represent their return-to normalcy ideology. As Kyle Kulinski put it, the story of the night was very much, Empire Strikes Back.
The other storylines of the night were Bloomberg’s failure to buy enough support for any substantial win, as many had expected after the Avengers Assembled around Biden, and Warren’s campaign crashing and burning with a 3rd place finish in her home state serving as the final nail in the coffin. Tulsi also was able to get a delegate from American Samoa but the DNC, of course, is doing their best to keep her off the debate stage.
As a result of all this, Biden is certainly the presumptive front-runner now and has all the momentum and earned media going into the next primaries. The next day Bloomberg bowed out and predictably supported Biden. Liz needed some time to calculate her next move, and after a day of pressure, she dropped as well. No endorsement has come yet despite the urgency of this election and its impact on people’s lives and the planet, but she had time to go on Rachel Maddow’s show to remind us about internet trolls and to SNL to joke about ‘playing a New York Times’ and endorse them both. Ironically enough, sitting out like she is so far and like she did in 2016 is essentially just that. I agree with Ryan Grim’s take, I hope she does stick with her progressive policy roots and sees the opportunity to salvage her brand with young voters and get the full weight of support from the movement, but I want to respect her personal process and don’t expect her or her supporters to immediately hop on board with us, though we welcome you all with open arms. I appreciate her contribution to policy and the progressive movement in the past, now that the candidacy is over I can come out and say that generally, my feeling toward her in this cycle is one of disappointment. She herself admitted that she was wrong about the viability of the lane between the safe centrism and progressive ideals in her press conference after dropping, and I hope it didn’t harm our chances too much.
At this point, the delegate count is very close but Biden has the edge and will almost certainly get Mike, Pete and Amy’s delegates. He also now leads in the perception of the all-important electability factor, which is top of mind for democratic voters. This is a new race. Though this was disappointing for those of us supporting Bernie and his movement, this is how the race was shaping up before Iowa anyway, and there is still time to draw distinctions with this newly narrowed fields. If you had told me back in October when he left the hospital after a heart attack that we would be this close after Super Tuesday, I probably would have taken it.
What Now?
We have learned many lessons after this turnaround and it’s important that we reflect and reassess. First of all, let’s remember and acknowledge that this is a brand new race. It’s one on one. Biden will now have the backing of donors who may have doubted him earlier in the cycle, and even have a machine built and paid for by Mike Bloomberg’s fortune now that he’s done burning his money on a vanity project. There are still very clear distinctions to be drawn between Biden and Sanders and Sanders’ team has already come out strong with new ads addressing contrasts on social security and trade, which will be important issues in the general election. It could be too little too late, but Biden is still the same gaff-prone relic who appears to be experiencing some cognitive decline and there is a clear and obvious case that can be made about why Joe Biden is not the ‘safe’ candidate; the brilliant journalist Mehdi Hasan of The Intercept summarized it best in his appearance on MSNBC:
“I just don’t get why Democrats think that you can just rerun the 2016 playbook and not think that Donald Trump won’t run his! I mean they tried to run a pro-Iraq War, pro-Wall Street, establishment Democrat with a history of dubious claims, and dodgy dealings, and dodgy comments about mass incarceration … where did that end up? What’s the old saying, insanity is doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results.”
Based on what did happen all of us in the movement need to change our strategy, and I want to thank creators like Kyle Kulinski, Michael Brooks, Krystal and Saager of Rising (and many more) for staying so on top of this for us, and for a wonderful show at the Bell House last Friday; it was truly an honor to meet you all and you haven’t seen the last of me!
I will reiterate and add on to their recommendations on how our movement should proceed to give ourselves one last shot at this thing.
Messaging is everything. Bernie, I appreciate how much you speak to people like me, but it’s time to narrow down the message and speak to the fears of those who like the sound of what you say but are wary of revolution.
Play for the Media Narrative. Mainstream media retains a lot of power over the segments of the public who are voting in these primaries. Take a page out of Trump’s books and be relentless so they have no choice but to cover you.
Focus on electability. The move made with the recent attack ads is exactly the right idea; make a clear case that Biden’s record is a liability for the general election. (At this point it’s also worth mentioning that Bernie was preparing a hardline attack on Biden in the debate leading up to Iowa but it was overshadowed by the Warren campaigns ‘secret sexist’ jab.)
Don’t neglect traditional politics. Making an effort to play the game a bit and seek out endorsements and even put pressure on public figures to sway them to move to your side or stay out; it can be very effective. We saw it with Jim Clyburn and now we may go down in history as the one who saved the current neo-liberal form of the Democratic party.
Re-assess youth turnout strategy. We are good at bringing out the young voters who are plugged in and paying attention but let’s face it, most people in their 20’s like me are watching Netflix and going out with their friends. Politics is just one of the topics that can be served in their Newsfeed apps and most of the time it’s avoided because it is ‘too divisive.’ It will be a long term project to really shift the culture in a big enough way to get the wave of turnout we were hoping for, but for now, we really need to think about new ways of speaking to the youth.
Play to emotions and fears. People are afraid. They are afraid of Trump, they are afraid of coronavirus, and they are afraid to upend what they are comfortable with. We need to recognize those emotions and meet them where they are, but also not be afraid to fear-monger a little ourselves. One glaring example of where we are losing on this front is the debate about healthcare and coronavirus. In this moment of panic, people are nervous about having too much chaos during a pandemic, they want someone dependable and predictable. Despite the fact that a ‘government plan for all instead of private insurance’ polled very well in exit polls on Super Tuesday, Biden still picked up more support from those voters who said coronavirus was important to their vote. We’re missing a clear opportunity to actually remind people what pandemic will look like with Biden’s plan to keep our private profit-driven healthcare system in-tact, instead of having that ‘government plan for all’ which would provide the foundations we need to help the sickest among us so we don’t all get infected. They fearmonger about us, we have every right to try the same tactics.
Pull the gloves off. Bernie, please, stop calling Joe your friend! We need to win this thing! As Kyle Kulinski said, pull no punches.
Line in the Sand
There is now a very clear distinction in the race; two distinct sides and a line in the sand drawn. Bernie vs Biden. People vs Plutocrats. A new beginning vs the status quo. Even Bernie came out of Tuesday saying this race was now about asking the question: “Which side are you on?”
Just like in 2016, it’s once again Us vs Them. The people looking for change vs the establishment who only ever changes their rhetoric. We definitely don’t want to make the same mistakes again, so let’s do our best to explain why there is a line in the sand, and why people need to cross to our side if they really want to beat Donald Trump and have a chance at averting the worst effects of the coming climate crisis.
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